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RFL01 - Foge's Fuzzy Forecast |
here is my forecast for what should prove to be a most highly competitive season of RFL action. the power ratings below were derived from player projections at the time of the draft. subsequent changes to player status (ahman green's hammy/groin, terrell davis' hurt arm, olindo mare's plantar fasciaitis, etc.) will only be reflected in the frantic roster gyrations of the GMs affected.
i really surprised myself by having shiv's team nab the pole position
once my complex calculations were complete on the wang supercomputer. my
projections did seem to favor QBs more than usual - obviously the result
of the last minute rule change regarding QB bonus yardage points. after
getting k warner in the 1st round (8th overall), i also liked the guts
in taking terrell davis in the 2nd - and the toothless cris carter in
round 3. i'm not so sure about wheatley in the 4th, but i think shiv
recovered nicely with chrebet, chad lewis and ryan longwell in the 5th,
6th and 7th. terrell davis looks strong heading into the regular season,
but moe williams is not the RB you want as #3. albert connell could
prove to be a decent #3 WR, and brad johnson shouldn't be too bad during
warner's bye week - but bj's no long-term solution if warner gets hurt.
i really liked how gary got an ace QB (manning) in round 1 - and still
managed to get a high-quality RB duo (j stewart and r watters) in rounds
2 and 3. the question marks (or "gambles" depending on your perspective)
started in round 4. antonio freeman got lit up the night before the
draft, i hilliard has quite a long history of injuries, k mccardell was
also missing time at the time of the draft, and thomas jones can't seem
to unseat pittman as the AZ RB. nedney was a very strong PK pick (9th PK
chosen) in the 8th round. rob johnson is an OK backup QB. waiting to
pick rickey dudley in round 10 as the starting TE might prove to've been
a poor decision. picking chad lewis instead of mccardell in round 6
might have been a better move, but dudley *is* going home again. k dyson
and t fletcher were available warm bodies in the last 2 rounds.
who can argue with getting marshall faulk in the 1st round? getting rod
and isaac forms a powerful WR duo - projected to be the #1 duo coming
out of the draft. dayne is iffy at best as RB#2. if ahman (vesh) goes
down, joebob has levens to step in. brunell and walls are in keeping
with joebob's time-honored tradition of drafting oldies when in doubt.
elam should challenge for 1st team All-RFL this season. picks 9-12 (t
mathis, r holcombe, r huntley, s matthews) should prove to be roster
fillers at best. huntley might surprise. once again... joebob will try
to win the aglione bowl with experience, performance enhancing
(borderline legal) drugs, and a methodical assault of attempted rules
circumvention.
e george and duce (ignoring their health "issues") could prove to be one
of the best RB tandems in the league this year. oronde was quite a reach
in the 5th round. perhaps 7th rounder c conway will nab the WR#2 spot
along-side mccaffrey. k collins and j fiedler at QB? [SHUDDER!] cam
cleeland in round 6 was the honorary wally pick. roland williams in
round 11 should prove to be clark's actual starting TE. janikowski (and
his pinky toe-sized brain) still fails to impress me. shaun alexander
and stacey mack are the backup RBs, but little production is expected
from these spots. i might be insane in the brain, but i actually think
kerry, cam and curtis can step up to help eddie, duce and ed lead this
team into a top 4 finish.
drafting 2 QBs (favre and gannon) in the 1st 3 rounds is certainly
something i've never seen before. we'll have to see if the balance of
richard's draft afforded him this luxury. priest (round 4) could prove
to be a decent edgerrin complement - if KC can ever get out of RBBC
mode. in fact, i project edgerrin/priest to be the #1 RB duo in RFL this
season. wycheck is a good TE, but with eddie george... the titans
needn't ever put the ball in the air. vanderjagt has finished 1st ('99)
and 3rd (2k) in PK points the last 2 years. richard's soft underbelly...
the WR corps. jj stokes as #1? galloway as #2? j morton and tony martin?
i guess owning randy moss last year spoiled richard. WR point production
could be slim and none this year. o gary is RB #3. marvcus pollard is
the 2nd TE.
taking stephen davis over warner/manning should prove to be a main point
for 2nd guessing. even brodz' old standby (m harrison) could have been
taken #7. brodz *did* go back to the future to take t gonzalez in round
2. no surprise there. waiting until round 6 to take a 2nd RB was quite a
gamble, but skip hicks was showing signs of taking over CHI's starting
RB spot. joe horn could be a decent #1 WR, but travis taylor as WR #2 in
round 5? picking chrebet, d jackson or d mason might prove to have been
more prudent. m pittman in round 7 could pan out, but the talented mr
thomas jones could have pittman riding the pine in short order. brodz is
hoping for one more decent year out of PK g anderson. couch is the
backup QB. deuce and kevan could easily move up the RB depth chart. k
robinson has apparently won a starting WR spot with WA.
f taylor, e george, r moss or warner/manning? i think picking culpepper
#3 was easy. picking 4th was the tough spot. in the end, joepa went with
his top RB from last year (f taylor). and as in years past, joepa
continued his RB gamble with m bennett in round 2. in '99 it was
edgerrin and rookie r williams. in 2k it was the gimpy pairing of t
davis and f taylor. m bennett is no robert smith, but his numbers could
still turn out to be pretty damn good. joepa also likes his QBs with
heaping helpings of athleticism. avery brooks was the choice in round 3.
then came the WR combo - muhsin and westbrook. with qadry and schroeder
as the backups, WR should be no worse than average for joepa. joepa was
the 1st to take a PK - j wilkins. and riemersma is a good ol' michigan
boy at TE. christal chandelier is the backup QB - while kris brown looks
to add to her record of most points scored by a female in RFL history.
despite all the dead weight picked by adam, he *still* backed his ass
into a preseason-projected playoff spot. QB garcia (round 1) and tiki
barber (4) look to lead this team. adam is hoping that 3rd rounder e
moulds' newly inked big-$ contract won't do him like an antonio freeman
last year. freddie jones should heal into a strong TE come playoff time.
the same could be said for PK o mare and WR marvcus robinson. kordell,
jamal lewis, t prentice, d chapman, sylvester morris, az-zahir hakim...
what needs to be said? chapman and hakim might combine for a TD or 2.
here's hoping adam can check in frequently from the holy land. with 4
current zero-production roster spots, there is no margin for error if
this team is to actually hold john off for the last playoff spot.
rookie GM john's first ever pick (11th overall) was marvin harrison. not
bad considering the initial run on RBs was basically over (6 RBs in
first 10 picks). getting w dunn and bettis in rounds 2 and 4 should
prove to be a nice move - especially with all the preseason hype about
dunn eating into alstott's touches this year. like richard, john also
took a 2nd QB (t green in 3rd and v testaverde in 5th) before the
standard "2nd QB in round 9" rule of thumb. the vINTy pick could prove
especially costly to GM wang - who had to scramble to pick
hand-the-ball-off-to-eddie mcnair instead. hollis should be a good PK. k
brady and h cross (what?!?) are a weak TE combo. j thrash, p price and j
green could put all their pts together and still not add up to a decent
#2 WR.
kevin was the 2nd GM to get his 2nd RB. r williams and c dillon have
been getting raves in the preseason, but we'll have to see what level of
drama strikes with these 2 during the season. i like the pass-catching
trio of timmy brown, amani toomer and s sharpe. travis henry (6th) could
take over as BUF's RB. peter warrick (7) and david terrell (8) add very
hard to predict WR depth. there's no question about the *potential*, but
what about the *production*. waiting until round 9 to pick your starting
QB usually digs a deep hole for your team in RFL, but i really like
kevin's selection of hasselbeck. getting PK john cahney in the 11th
round could also pay off huge dividends - if the saints can move the
ball like last year. so the big question for kevin is... will his
henry/warrick/terrell/brookins picks complement his shrewdness in
getting hasselbeck and cahney further down the draft board?
after being talked out of c martin and c dillon with pick #13, vesh
settled on greasy. if his bionic arm doesn't fall off, this should be a
nice pick. there's a huge drop-off to 11th rounder j plummer. ahman
green (2) and emmitt (3) are one of the top RB pairings not including a
marshall or an edgerrin. 5th rounder james jackson could prove to be a
quality #3 RB. vesh is hoping that high risk picks jimmy smith (4) and
darrell jackson (6) provide a high reward. j mcknight could be a nice #3
WR, but might have been a reach in round 7. troy brown and darnay scott
could possibly be worth starting here and there. stover was the #1 PK
last year. dan campbell is the TE.
he was:
-very happy getting curtis martin at #15.
-looking at jamal anderson (14th) at pick 16 - instead of l smith.
-also thinking about t gonzalez at #16, but was too gutless to pull the
trigger.
-probably reaching for david boston in round 4.
-wanting testaverde (instead of mcnair) in round 5.
-ecstatic to get ladainian tomlinson in round 6.
-happy with m gramatica in round 7.
-probably reaching for byron chamberlain in round 8, but thought there
was too much being written about byron around the time of the draft.
-hoping for a better QB than j george in round 9, but
bledsoe/couch/bjohnson/rjohnson/hasselbeck went just before the pick
came.
-probably reaching for kevin johnson in round 10, but perhaps only
laveranues coles would have been a better pick.
-ambivalent about anthony thomas and bill gramatica.
culpepper was the hometown choice after marshall and edgerrin, and i
believe culpepper was the right choice. others would say to pick the
consistency/predictability of warner or manning, but look for daunte to
repeat his 1st team All-RFL performance of last year. cals' WR pairing
of torry and germane could be excellent, but crowell has the look of
more-bust-than-boom about him. "quantity over quality" was clearly the
RB philosophy. hearst (2nd), alstott (4th), terry allen (6th), antowain
smith (8th) and t richardson (11th) give cals a stableful of has-beens
and never-weres. garrison was looking good at the time of the draft, but
then questions about his contract started popping up. everything seems
squared away for now, but we'll see how long garrison can hold off kevan
and paul. bubba might be poised for a breakout year at TE. akers could
be a high-achiever if the eagles' offense proves it wasn't a fluke last
year.
i liked the jamal anderson pick in round 1, and who can complain about
getting t owens in round 2?!? d alexander should be a fine 3rd rounder,
and stan's terrell-derrick duo should battle joebob's rod-isaac pair for
#1 WR tandem this season. i did not like the d flutie, james allen and c
batch picks in rounds 4-6 too much. desmond clark is getting some press
as a big-time TE in denver. a vinatieri was the "hometown" PK pick for
stan - when cahney would have been the "obvious" pick here. peabo, jr
redmond and sammy morris were thinly veiled attempts to bounce back from
having james allen as the default #2 RB. the stokley pick in round 11
was panned at draft HQs as a super bowl hyped pick.
in my '99 preview, ali was ranked #1, but finished #13. in my '00
preview, ali was ranked #8, but finished #1. now i have ali as the
lowest ranked draft team. what does it all mean? that my mathematical
formulations stink as badly as the bay area job market? randy moss at
#6... no argument here. donovan mcnabb in round 2... who are the eagle
receivers?!? mike anderson and c garner in rounds 3 and 4... why the
part-timers? probably should have been r watters and priest holmes. rice
in round 5... might be ok, but chrebet was there. d mason in round 6 was
a nice pick. stephen alexander in round 7... just missed out on bubba. j
hanson in round 8... if the lions only had a QB. bledsoe doesn't have
anyone to play catch with. l coles could surprise. paul smith might be
stuck at #3... on SF's d chart. hines ward... better than jujube.
despite a handful of questionable picks on draft day, the free agent
cupboard was essentially bare when brad got around to sifting. brad did
manage to have 2 starting QBs (kitna and weinke) to pick, a decent TE
(dilger), and some non-awful WRs (r moore was 2nd team all-RFL on vesh's
'97 team of leftovers). SF should give PK cortez the chance to score
some points, but the RB foursome is most woesome. l centers and r
anderson should get some touches thanks to their pass-catching
abilities. trung canidate and fuamatu-ma'afala were probably picked
because their names are pretty cool.
1. Mahatma's Minions... Solid every year. He's stolen
my mojo!
2. Rich... may want to get some new WRs though
3. Black Knights... Don't know how they came out so
big in my secret ranking formula.
4. Cleveland... Josh, I never knew you to be a
cleveland type of guy.
5. Boobies!... The rankings are biased!
6. Pimps... Finally shook his Giants fetish, should
help out in the standings
7. Brooding Unicorn... Should move higher
8. Dude... get a QB (i will never respect NY Giants,
unless they are former Vikings, god forbid)
9. Persian Bastards... RBs will flop. Shorten the
name please!
10. Rabbis... Just the name should sink this team.
Actually, if not for the Lewis pick, they'd be OK
11. Jersey... Dunn ain't all that. Give the damn ball
to Alstott
12. Everyone go deep... They have a good game plan,
but too many players in the dog house
13. Poopy Diapers... I'm dropping the gauntlet early
this year. Isaac showed poor RFL judgment when he let
his Dad convince him to start those 2 "K" guys. Who?
14. Uffdalators... best team name. Star studded
lineup is overrated! Williams, Dillon, Brown, and
Sharpe will all underachieve this year
15. invasive species... There's only one performer in
this bunch, TO. pray for anderson to rebound and
alexander to repeat.
16. Blue Collar... the sentimental favorite! Watch
for Cretin alum Weinke to make all-RFL
©1999-2001 RFL Inc.
All rights reserved.
Revised: September 6, 2001